China's population fell by 2.75 million, or 0.2%, in 2023, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics earlier this year. This decline exceeded the 850,000 drop recorded in 2022, which marked the first contraction in China’s population since the reform era began. This is despite policies introduced as early as 2016 to encourage families to have more children. These include the relaxation of the one-child policy, replaced by the two-child and three-child policies, and active incentives to encourage more couples of have children such as subsidies and tax reduction programs. Many experts had predicted a slight rebound in birth rates in 2024, with some projecting that the number of births could surpass 10 million. While some preliminary data does support it, with increases in the birth rate seen in provinces such as Guangdong and Hainan, overall, there is a continued reluctance among young couples in China to have children.
According to statistics, 4.33 million births were recorded nationwide in the first half of 2024. If this trend continues, the total number of births for the year is likely to be around 8 million—lower than the 9.02 million births in 2023 and far below the expert projections of over 10 million. Many young couples remain hesitant to have children, citing challenges such as the high cost of living, delayed marriage due to the high cost of getting married, high unemployment among graduates, limited social mobility, and a highly competitive and expensive education system. Online discussions have brought an old Chinese phrase into the conversation, but used in a different way: As the fertility rate declines, discussions about "cutting off the family line 断绝香火" are getting louder. Many people worry that this trend will lead to a severe demographic imbalance and may even directly impact the country's future. 
The difference in discussions around the recent publication of birth data is that young couples, and sometimes their parents, support the idea of not having children even if it does cut the family line. This is despite policies introduced as early as 2016 to encourage families to have more children. These include the relaxation of the one-child policy, replaced by the two-child and three-child policies, and active incentives to encourage more couples of have children such as subsidies and tax reduction programs. However, many remain hesitant, citing challenges such as the high cost of living, delayed marriage due to the high cost of getting married, high unemployment among graduates, limited social mobility, and a highly competitive and expensive education system.
The China Statistical Yearbook 2024, compiled and published by the National Bureau of Statistics in October this year, released data on birth rates, death rates, and natural population growth rates across 31 provinces for the previous year. A review of the data in Nov 2024 by Yicai (第一财经), a financial media outlet, highlighted that in 2023, the birth rate exceeded 8% (8 births per 1,000 people) in eight provinces, with 15 provinces reporting birth rates higher than the national average of 6.39%. In the first half of 2024, 4.33 million births were recorded nationwide. If this trend continues, the total number of births for this year is likely to be around 8 million—lower than the 9.02 million births in 2023, and far below the expert projections of over 10 million. 
Despite some of the data suggesting otherwise, many young people in China remain unwilling to have kids. Comments on the Yicai article reveal the cynicism of many through a play on words of a slang phrase which has become popular this year: The fact that the workhorse-editor is still replying to the comments (late at night) makes it clear why the birth rate is so low. Everyone is just trying to survive, with only a rare few striving to live their life. You and I are both born workhorses, endlessly toiling in hardship, without a moment of rest. The "workhorse" metaphor, which is a language trend we have followed closely this year, is developed creatively by another commenter: On stormy days, as torrential rain pours down, cows will retreat to their shelters to sleep, and horses will stay in the stable eating grass. However, the [human] workhorses will find every possible way to go to the office. Cows moo, horses neigh, while workhorses reply, "Received with thanks!" 
In a Chinese blog article published in early Dec 2024, which discusses the recently published birth rate data, an interview with a young couple reveals the feelings of many: "Nowadays, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to raise children, considering education, healthcare, housing, and work pressure... I feel that these pressures are even more unbearable than having a child itself." In the same article, the writer also interviews an older resident in Guizhou province, one of the poorer regions in China, with one of the highest birth rates. He says something quite different: "How would young people today know what 'family lineage' is? Only when they have children do they realise true happiness. Look, my children are very caring. They come back to see me every year and send me money. My children take care of me when I'm old. That makes me feel at ease." 
His words reflect the traditional Chinese view of having children, through the metaphor of “continuing the incense” (延续香火)—a cultural reference to the age-old tradition of ancestor worship in China. However, for many young people in China’s cities, living up to these traditional values is a long way from their reality. For them, having one more child means being able to afford a larger apartment which would cost them an extra several hundred thousand yuan (or tens of thousands of dollars). 
Even if they can afford to buy a larger home to accommodate one more child, young couples have many more long-term costs to consider, driven by some of the parental pressures, as one young parent shares: At three years old, you must "win at the starting line." In elementary school, you have to attend out-of-school classes. In middle school, you need to join tutoring programs; In high school, you have to cram relentlessly for Gaokao. Graduating from a good university only means you become unemployed. You face fierce competition during the job hunt, you need the support from your family to pay the down payment, and then you’re burdened with a 30-year mortgage. Thus, the declining population trends in China, coupled with economic hardships under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, subtly reflect young Chinese’ shifting values towards family, career and future outlook.