By Yuganath Sharma Poudyal

The recent U.S. election on November 5, 2024, has brought Donald Trump back to the presidency, representing a return to hardline capitalism and nationalism that will impact not only American policies but the broader global landscape. Trump's anticipated second term, starting January 20, 2025, signals a shift toward prioritizing national interests over interdependent globalization—a move that will ripple across U.S. relations with China, India, Nepal, and other nations in an increasingly complex world order.

U.S.-China Relations: From Economic Partners to Systemic Rivals

The relationship between the U.S. and China, initially shaped by Richard Nixon’s 1972 visit, was a pragmatic decision to bring a communist nation into the global economic fold. Over decades, this partnership fueled China’s economic rise, embedding contradictions within U.S. foreign policy by engaging a non-democratic state while advocating for democratic ideals worldwide. The economic interdependence that emerged has, however, grown fraught with ideological and strategic tensions.

Under Trump’s first term, his administration approached China as a competitor rather than a partner, implementing tariffs and policies aimed at reducing U.S. reliance on Chinese manufacturing and technology. Now, his expected return will likely reinforce economic decoupling, potentially increasing tariffs and imposing restrictions on Chinese businesses. His strategy highlights a broader ideological struggle: while China positions itself as a leader of “authoritarian capitalism,” Trump’s policies reinforce the capitalist ethos within a nationalist framework, viewing China as a direct economic and ideological threat.

Indo-U.S. Relations: A Strategic Alliance Against Chinese Expansionism

India has become a crucial ally for the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific, a region fraught with tension over China’s increasing territorial ambitions. India, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, shares Trump’s nationalist and protectionist tendencies, strengthening a natural alliance. Trump’s communication with Modi following his 2024 victory reflects his commitment to fortifying ties with India, likely deepening military and strategic cooperation through forums like the Quad, a partnership involving the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India.

India’s alignment with Trump’s America resonates in its recent stance in conflicts such as the Canada issue, where Modi has emphasized national sovereignty over conciliatory diplomacy. Trump’s expected policies may further support India’s position in the Indo-Pacific, pushing back against China’s growing influence. However, potential trade negotiations may see friction, as Trump’s transactional approach may demand reduced trade barriers and increased U.S. market access, affecting sectors like technology and defense exports.

Nepal’s Diplomatic Struggles with China: Can the U.S. Help?

Nepal’s relationship with China has become increasingly complex, with Beijing’s influence extending into the economic, political, and social spheres of this small Himalayan nation. With Chinese foreign policy marked by aggressive tactics often termed as "Wolf Warrior Diplomacy" and "Debt-Trap Diplomacy," Nepal finds itself in a precarious position. As part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Nepal has received loans for infrastructure projects, but critics argue that these agreements come with sovereignty concerns and financial risks, adding to Nepal’s diplomatic challenges.

With Trump’s administration expected to focus on countering Chinese influence, U.S.-Nepal relations may gain renewed strategic significance. Though low-profile compared to India and China, Nepal’s concerns over Chinese encroachment could align with Trump’s anti-China stance. By potentially offering financial and political support, Trump could help Nepal navigate Chinese coercive diplomacy, providing an alternative to China’s authoritarian model. Additionally, Trump’s transactional diplomacy might focus on mutual benefits, encouraging Nepal to assert its sovereignty while diversifying its economic dependencies.

Ideological Pragmatism: India and Canada, and the Decline of Ideological Diplomacy

Recent tensions between India and Canada reflect a broader shift away from ideological alignment in international relations. Canada, led by Justin Trudeau, has championed human rights on the global stage but faced India’s nationalistic stance under Modi. This incident underscores a trend where countries prioritize sovereignty and economic security over ideological alliances—a perspective that may intensify under Trump’s leadership. By reshaping alliances based on pragmatic, transactional interests, Trump’s approach could encourage other nations to adopt a similarly pragmatic approach.

Middle East and South Asia: Security and Economic Interests Over Multilateralism

In the Middle East, Trump’s policy may mirror his previous pro-Israel, anti-Iran approach, prioritizing security alliances over multilateral cooperation. This stance, focused on regional stability and economic gains, could shift U.S. influence, as countries in the region reassess their alliances in light of increased Chinese and Russian involvement.

In South Asia, Bangladesh faces challenges due to its balancing act between Chinese economic investments and the U.S.'s Indo-Pacific policies. With a more assertive U.S. stance on countering Chinese influence in the region, Bangladesh may have to navigate U.S.-China tensions delicately. Trump’s presidency may push for stronger Indo-Pacific cooperation, encouraging Bangladesh to lean towards U.S. partnerships as an alternative to China’s economic outreach.

A New Capitalist Era and the Transformation of Globalization

Trump’s re-election symbolizes a renewed capitalist and nationalist ideology, fundamentally challenging the interdependent globalization model that has dominated in recent decades. Unlike the liberal economic order that prioritized shared growth and open markets, Trump’s agenda focuses on self-reliance, bilateralism, and strategic partnerships. This approach to globalization favors national interests, reducing dependency on international supply chains and foreign markets.

The rise of this capitalist model signals a departure from the collaborative principles established by Nixon and other past leaders. Trump’s approach suggests a fractured but multipolar world order, where countries like the U.S., India, and others form strategic, interest-based alliances, leaving China’s authoritarian capitalism to be managed through competition rather than cooperation.

Conclusion: A Resurgence of Nationalist Diplomacy in an Uncertain World

As Trump’s presidency begins in 2025, the U.S. is poised to reassert itself as a capitalist stronghold in a world marked by ideological divides and shifting alliances. The U.S. may strengthen its alliances with India while providing alternative options for countries like Nepal and Bangladesh facing Chinese influence.

In a global climate where economic insecurities and nationalist movements are rising, Trump’s unapologetic capitalist and nationalist stance may set a new standard for international relations. This resurgence of pragmatic, interest-driven diplomacy suggests that the global order Nixon once influenced will now be reshaped under Trump’s bold vision—one that favors economic autonomy, nationalist interests, and competitive alliances over traditional democratic values and ideological unity.

Through this lens, Trump's victory represents not only a return to the White House but a reshaping of the global order, impacting emerging economies, longstanding alliances, and geopolitical rivalries in an era where self-interest and sovereignty are paramount.