What is the Tenure of Balen Sarkar?

Instability is one of the distinct characters of Nepali politics. It is often defined in terms of frequent changes in government or the PM not being able to complete a full five-year term. Definitely, changes in government entail changes in power, policy, people, and privileges.

Over the last 30-35 years, the average tenure of the government hovers around 1-2 years. Mr. S.B. Deuba may have been the PM on five occasions, but his total tenure is less than five years.

The frequent changes in government is not just the mark of multiparty democracy or federal democratic republic Nepal; this has been going on since the days of monarchy and Ranarchy. It is only three Rana PMs, namely, Jung Bahadur, Chandra Shumsher, and Juddha Shumsher, who ruled the country with comfort; all others were there for a short duration.

Constitutionally, the present government is for five years. If you ask anybody in the street, other than the RSP zealots, a rare number of people believe this government is here to govern for five years. Recent Rasuwa flooding and its handling or rather mishandling have substantially reduced its life expectancy. Going back to history, we have seen that every natural flooding or disaster is succeeded by political flooding. I caution the readers to tighten their seat belts.

So, let us ask the question: what is the tenure of this government? We can say in definite terms that it will not last five years. If it does, that will be another chamatkar in itself. Then what is the longevity of Balen Sarkar? Two years? Three years?

When this government was formed, it was not even sure of its tenure, forget about others. Many believed Lamichhane and Balen must have decided to share evenly. This is the reason why Mr. C. K. Lal, the political analyst, commented “government doing everything in haste”, as if it is running out of time. In fact, from the very start, the Lamichhane-Balen combine was a hotchpotch arrangement. Lucky that Ghising was ejected on time. Unfortunately, he has not realized this.

Only after the RSP convention in Chitwan, the Balen supporters are talking of a full five-year term. For this scribe, the best indicator of government tenure is signaled by a flippant comment made by a minister who called himself “Kawadi Scientist”. Immediately after his oath-taking ceremony, he could be seen on social media commenting “he is here for three years and he is here to give his best”. The PM can send him home any time. But, I suppose, when a newly appointed minister speaks of his tenure, he must be indicating the life of the Cabinet.

Instead of speculating on government tenure, I suppose, it is worthwhile to debate on the sources of instability. There are already tell-tale signs.

Saving much hyped Gen-Z movement, all major political changes in Nepal have been accompanied by natural disasters (earthquake in particular), worsening of external relationships (particularly with India), and rising internal dissents. So far, only the third factor seems to be in favor. Again, this has to do with internal quibbling inside the Nepali Congress Party. Once the dust inside NC is settled, Gagan Thapa turning into Gone Thapa, the picture will be clearer. UML too is embroiled in a leadership crisis. Removing Oli is not going to solve their problem. The fourth largest party – the Maoist Party – has, literally, ceased to exist. In the parliament, Prachanda gives an impression of an alien coming from a different planet. Pro-monarchist, RPP, is peeing in its pants. I suppose, it has to do with Lingden’s over-ambitious zeal to investigate corruption in the construction of Pokhara International Airport. Monarchists also made a gross mistake by taking Balendra, with “indra” suffix in his name and writing motto Shah in surname, as their man. He may be the man of the army; definitely, the army is not yours. Ranas and Shahs no more dominate the army now.

Possible rift within the ruling party, RSP, could be a destabilizing force, but this is not going to happen in the near future. Balen may have a chhumatalab attitude with his party, with the parliament, with the bureaucracy, with the judiciary, and with the local and provincial governments, but he managed to show his physical presence during Mr. Lamichhane’s recent address in the parliament. His voice no more matches with the body language.

As long as Lucifer is backed by the army and Fucifer by the police, the company called Lucifer & Fucifer Pvt. Ltd. Co. will rule the roost. This is not going to last long. The specter of uncertainty will turn into a frenzy of looting. Remember, the propensity to corruption is higher with younger age.

The problems are brewing at the external fronts. This has to do with recent floods in Rasuwa. The army may have rescued Balen Sarkar from Hindu-Muslim riot and from the floods. These are makeshift arrangements. The real test lies in how Balen Sarkar performs during his UNGA address scheduled September 24. There are both risks and returns; he can come out as a hero or reduced to a zero. So far, going by his preparation and looking at his team, things don’t bode well. Rather, I sense a kind of disaster in making, at an international level. No wonder, people start calling him as Nepali Zelenskyy. By the way, former PM Lokendra Bahadur Chanda called Oli as Mister Putin of Nepal. That must be the reason why they don’t mix together!

I do remember, Lamichhane roaring inside the parliament, during NC-UML coalition, warning of serious consequences if it fails to work. I can say with definite term that RSP failure will be even more disastrous than what we have experienced or observed. There is no light at the end of the tunnel; moreover, you are travelling with dark shades and black clothes. This rapper thinks he is into a rap battle where winning is defined more by defeating the opponent. I am baffled by these two phrases in negotiation literature – win him over and win over him.