Sequential Consequences

One can do nothing with what has already happened. Only thing we can do is with what is going to happen. First, a news story from Sri Lanka in the aftermath of Tsunami 2004. This is what I read in The Economist:

Within a minute, the boats were destroyed, damaged or drowned. The fishing community is being ruined. Some managed to survive with their skills. Next followed a rumor that the fishes they caught survived feeding human remains, washed away by Tsunami flood. The demand for fishes plummeted in the fishing market – further ruining the community. The Tsunami brought in sea waters and this destroyed underground drinking water quarries, salinized fields where nothing can be grown. There are sequential, cascading effects. This is what we need to be aware of with Rasuwa flood.

I suppose, the first hazard to confront will be health issues. Imagine the stench coming from rotting human bodies, animals and aquatic life in the river? In the summer heat, these will trigger pandemic situation. What we need is a fleet of health workers to assist the survivors – focusing on preventive sanitation.

The flooded area used to be an economically thriving area with multiple hydro-power projects, Nepal-China customs point, internal and tourist destinations points and with acres and acres of green fertile lands. These have vanished in the thin air. Nepal’s dream of getting rich by selling hydro-power is being badly shattered. It has turned into a nightmare. Media reported that the country must have lost a chuck of skilled manpower, in terms of engineers, technicians and construction workers working underground.Just forget about FDI and foreign tourists.

The glacial collapse has brought in economic collapse. And it has come at a time when a large sections of Nepali people waiting to celebrate Big Dasain festival – post harvesting rice fields. There will be more exodus of people that survived the catastrophe. That means push for Kathmandu which is the closet point. Those who can afford will move abroad.As people are already moving out, the misfortune only add to the psychology that one can get security only in foreign lands – as the kith and kin of those already living abroad vouchsafe this point.

The river side greenery, the fertile land are overnight turned into a barren desert. It will take ages to grow greenery there. Moreover, river side will be most unhospitable area to live. It is also reported that the Trishuli River itself has increased its base by three meters due to depositing of debris. This means the river will increase its breath, implying more floods and flood related disasters in the days ahead.

The people downstream may be happy with the free fishes, the country loses valuable aquatic life that brings life to a river.

More important point to note is that all major natural disasters in Nepal have accompanied political consequences. Starting with nabyasaalkobhukampa(Bihar Earthquake in 1934), that ultimately helped, albeit with a delay, the country to abolish rana family rule in 1951. Even before we have first People’s Movement in 1990, the country had an earthquake affecting some parts of the Valley and Eastern Nepal. The April Earthquake of 2015 led to hasty writing of the Constitutional inviting Madhesandolan plus undeclared blockade from India. The misfortune got fuelled first by coronavirus then by Oli-virus followed by musical chair politics – leading to Gen-Z rebellion last year. The present government headed by a cartoon character, with the backing from army, must be in a desperate situation. More mishandling of rescue and rehabilitation works means shortening its tenure. It is badly entangled in geo-politics. It will have to cope with external and internal dissensions. Earlier, the government boasted with pride that it is speeding up its development works and there is no point stopping until destination point. Now, with this devastating flood in Bagmati Province, the central part of the country infested by bahun-politics; what would a driver do when it is not just the road, vehicle, even a destination point suddenly disappear from the radar? May be he will be forced to take out his black shades this time.